Insights
Notes from the practice.
Writing on modeling and planning, mostly about the failure modes we keep running into. No cadence, no gating, no downloadable whitepaper in exchange for your email.
Optimization and simulation answer different questions
Teams often buy one and expect the other. The distinction is not academic; it determines whether your plan survives a bad week.
In this piece
- What each one is actually for
- The failure mode of using only one
- Using them together
- Forecasting7 min read
Forecast accuracy is the wrong target
A forecast that is two points more accurate and changes no decision has produced nothing. Measure the cost of the errors, not the size of them.
- Network Design5 min read
If the baseline does not tie out, nothing downstream matters
The least glamorous phase of a network study is the one that determines whether anyone believes the result.
- Inventory6 min read
Most inventory problems are placement problems
Simultaneous overstock and stockout in the same catalog is not a volume signal. It is a diagnosis.
- Simulation5 min read
A digital twin you do not maintain is just an old model
The modeling is the easy part. The operating commitment is what separates a twin from a one time study.